In: Futures & Foresight Science (Wiley)
Submission deadline: Monday, 30 September 2024
This special issue focuses on methods to anticipate the development and diffusion trajectories of radically new technologies. As part of these methods, it is important to explore how these technologies evolve together with changes in their wider ecosystem. Radically new technologies refer to emerging technologies, considered high-tech, and representing a significant departure from existing technologies. They are characterized by novelty, creating entirely new markets or drastically changing the structure and dynamics of existing ones. These technologies often involve breakthroughs in scientific or engineering domains and have the potential to make a profound impact on society and economy, and thus are important when formulating company strategies or government policies. These technologies may introduce new capabilities, significantly alter consumer behavior, or transform the way economic systems operate.
We invite submissions for a forthcoming special issue focused on the predictive methodologies for mapping the trajectory of radically new technologies through various stages of diffusion. We seek robust, evidence-based articles that clarify the effectiveness of these methods in different environmental complexities and stages of technological advancement.
Topics for this call for papers include but not restricted to:
- General predictions of the development and diffusion of radically new technologies like generative AI, quantum computing, nanotechnologies, synthetic biology, etc.
- Diffusion stage specific predictions of a radically new technology (innovation, adaptation, or market stages). This subtopic can include older studies done in earlier diffusion stages of radically new technologies, with or without comparison to later stages.
- Specific predictions of initial applications of a radically new technology.
- Specific predictions of hypes or hype cycle stages of a radically new technology.
- Predictions of the effects of the diffusion of radically new technologies on markets, policy, or societies.
- Predictions of possible future(s) in which a radically new technology is or determines one of the dimensions.
- Comparison of possible methods to predict the future(s) in which a radically new technology is or determines one of the dimensions, such as horizon scanning, Delphi analysis, scenario planning, or dynamic adaptive pathways (DAP).
- Combination of predictive methods for technological development and diffusion and their effects.
- Consequences of predictive analysis of radically new technologies for policy making at various levels (e.g. national, supranational, international).
- The future of predictive methods and analysis under the influence of radically new computing or analytical technologies (e.g. AI enabled weak signal crawling).
We are particularly interested in contributions that combine predictive methods for technological development and its effects, analyze the consequences for policy making, and explore the future of predictive methods under the influence of new computing technologies.
Submission Guidelines/Instructions
Submissions should be original, well-researched, and provide practical insights into the chosen topic. Conceptual articles are the exception. Submissions must be in English. Manuscripts should follow the manuscript advice and submission guidelines of Futures and Foresight Science and be submitted by the designated deadline.
Potential contributors should submit an abstract to the lead guest editor Dr Barbara van Veen at b.l.vanveen-2@tudelft.nl before 31 May 2024. Abstracts that have a good fit with the theme and objectives of the special issue will lead to an invitation to submit. The deadline for submission of full papers (via the journal's online platform) will then be 30 September 2024.
Please note: An invitation for paper submission does not mean that the paper will be accepted; as usual, this is the task of reviewers and editors. Each paper will undergo a rigorous review process by our team of guest editors specializing in innovation diffusion and foresight.
We look forward to your contributions and to advancing the discourse in this critical area of study.
Guest Editors:
Barbara L. van Veen
Delft University of Technology
Netherlands
V. A. W. J. Marchau
Radboud University
Netherlands
J. Roland Ortt
Delft University of Technology
Netherlands
Vladimir C. M. Sobota
Delft University of Technology
Netherlands